Introduction

Upper Mad River

The Nottawasaga Valley Conservation Authority (NVCA) and The Oak Ridges Moraine Groundwater Program (ORMGP) have partnered to explore the applicability of the ORMGP’s historical climate data service in supporting event-based HEC-HMS models built in Southern Ontario to investigate the rainfall-runoff response to extreme summer rainfall events. As a proof of concept, the ~246km² Upper Mad River watershed was identified as a good first candidate.

Upper Mad River watershed


HEC-HMS

The HEC-HMS model code and its construction proceeded in a manor to accommodate future continuous simulation as planed by the NVCA. As such, the NVCA requested a “Deficit and Constant” method suitable for long term continuous modelling be included with the delivered model. The HEC-HMS model offered by the US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center includes such functionality as do many other model codes (PRMS, Raven, MikeSHE, HydroGeoSphere, etc.), yet it was ultimately chosen due to the code:

  1. being free of cost;
  2. having an integrated Graphical User Interface (GUI);
  3. having both event and continuous/deficit and constant modelling capabilities;
  4. including powerful capabilities such as the 2D shallow water flow module included in HEC-RAS.
  5. being widely used both professionally and academically, thus making HEC-HMS the right application to be adopted institutionally due to its transferability.

Snapshot of the Mad River HEC-HMS project


Design criteria

The model construction phase proceeded with certain constraints such that the model can be readily simulate continuous processes. For instance, the model was built with:

  1. smaller (~10km²) subbasins commensurate with sub-watershed boundaries managed by the NVCA that also coincide with the ORMGP climate data service distribution. (In total there are 27 HEC-HMS Subbasins.)
  2. watershed built using HEC-HMS’s “GIS” functionality based on a 10m DEM.
  3. applied map-based hydrologic processes (i.e., SCS curve method) that is best suited for simulating future land use change.

It’s important to note that in practice, models are developed to be either event-based (e.g., individual extreme rainfall events) vs. continuous (e.g., long-term/seasonal hydrology, climate change, etc.) but rarely both. The ORMGP have maintains a near-real-time daily data set complete since 1901 built for long term continuous modelling needed for groundwater resource management. However, we also maintain a 6-hourly near-real-time climate data set since 2002. Both of these products are complete and are spatially distributed to thousands of ~10km² sub-watersheds covering our jurisdiction.

The following snapshot has been prepared to assist the NVCA with preparation of HEC-HMS Technical Memo (Task 1.4) describing the methods used to compile necessary data, build the model, calibrate/verify the model and conduct a sensitivity analysis.

Data Collection

The target for the Data Collection (Task 1.1) piece was the for the implementation of the ORMGP climate data service. As each of the HEC-HMS subbasin mapped well to the ORMGP’s sub-watershed delineation, rainfall data was nonetheless derived from the ~10km² CaPA-RDPA grid shown below. Compared with meteorological stations, the CaPA-RDPA product offers a refined spatial distribution of precipitation amounts. Given that most extreme summer events are of the convective type, many of these storms are themselves small scale and are susceptible of being unobserved by the relatively coarse station network.

HEC-HMS subasins vs CaPA-RDPA resolution vs Nearest Active hourly climate stations


Analyze meteorological Data

There exist 3 meteorological stations

  1. 6111792: COLLINGWOOD see data
  2. 6117700: BARRIE-ORO see data
  3. 611E001: EGBERT CS see data

Annual precipitation in the region have seen mixed trends as of late. for instance Collingwood shows a increasing trend over the past 30 years, whereas there’s a decreasing trend at Egbert CS and no trend at Barri-Oro.

mean daily temperature: 8°C

Analyze meteorological data (precipitation, snow, temperature, radiation)

Analyze existing streamflow Data

Instantaneous (5min) streamflow data have been acquired from 2011 for 02ED015: MAD RIVER BELOW AVENING (see daily data)

Analyze existing streamflow data (characterize large events (hydrograph analysis), baseflow analysis, statistical analysis)

Timescale

Analyze geospatial data

Analyze applicable digital geospatial data sets including but not limited to soils, topography, land use to define hydrologic response units and appropriate catchments for the hydrologic model.

DEM

OMRF (2019b): 10m horizontal resolution.


Land Use

Combination of SOLRIS v.3.0 for land use type (OMNR, 2019a) and OGS (2010) to classify the Curve Number (CN) method “hydrologic soil group”.

Curve Number

based on a geospatial overlay of SOLRIS and OGS

Percent Impervious

based on SOLRIS

Initial Abstraction

relative vegetaiton cover based on SOLRIS


HEC-HMS modelling

Upper Mad River Hydrologic Modeling Using HEC-HMS (Task 1.2)

Climate zones and subbasins

Delineate climate zones and subbasins and will complete meteorological and streamflow data processing for the Upper Mad River watershed.

Model structure

kable(df, caption = 'cell-border stripe')
cell-border stripe
ï..name percov CN perimp metID flowlen.km fpslp basinslp bsnrelief bsnrelrati elongation drndens area swsid dssws
Subbasin-2 0.0927624 69.70073 0.0678313 12495453 6.95290 0.02519 0.04202 175.5799 0.02525 0.54685 1.02080 11.348858 0 -1
Subbasin-3 0.1272083 83.72658 0.0242185 12940644 9.76037 0.02263 0.07809 226.3828 0.02319 0.37984 0.99890 10.788892 1 -1
Subbasin-1 0.3479206 71.40088 0.0234130 12495453 4.01904 0.04948 0.11811 216.1292 0.05378 0.73244 0.72994 6.802537 2 3
Subbasin-5 0.2616093 72.37493 0.0676880 12660504 7.30687 0.03337 0.08361 246.0634 0.03368 0.46110 1.24863 8.910771 3 1
Subbasin-4 0.1278012 75.87059 0.0159263 12495453 5.85970 0.01837 0.07874 697.1606 0.11898 0.54728 0.50650 8.074160 4 10
Subbasin-7 0.3371822 77.11174 0.0426831 12350375 15.14501 0.01627 0.10490 247.0075 0.01631 0.32158 0.93037 18.622390 5 10
Subbasin-6 0.3461948 79.19955 0.0105703 12350375 6.65202 0.00519 0.07161 60.7784 0.00914 0.61148 0.79997 12.989416 6 5
Subbasin-20 0.3411663 69.15127 0.0071032 13125281 8.71339 0.00132 0.01939 16.0768 0.00185 0.47365 0.88549 13.368437 7 23
Subbasin-11 0.2909395 71.96663 0.0154423 12725234 11.09162 0.00134 0.02081 21.8456 0.00197 0.31928 1.09702 9.843678 8 23
Subbasin-15 0.2955138 83.20826 0.0224271 12350375 5.84727 0.01637 0.06147 107.1488 0.01832 0.62234 0.76277 10.395453 9 13
Subbasin-9 0.3349957 72.54164 0.0175558 12495453 3.88383 0.03198 0.13170 127.6565 0.03287 0.58502 0.81165 4.052843 10 2
Subbasin-19 0.2876643 72.97874 0.0131664 12525261 6.85894 0.00338 0.03846 32.1715 0.00469 0.52718 0.94596 10.263243 11 24
Subbasin-10 0.4950839 56.72039 0.0222907 12495453 6.00332 0.03303 0.13482 204.7157 0.03410 0.59790 0.88920 10.113434 12 2
Subbasin-24 0.3042713 70.97325 0.0119758 12495453 8.43930 0.02363 0.11278 229.0075 0.02714 0.37488 0.92397 7.857712 13 10
Subbasin-18 0.3269311 60.91327 0.0223886 12495453 6.94438 0.02300 0.11068 176.4274 0.02541 0.55750 1.15755 11.765281 14 12
Subbasin-16 0.3836976 70.44204 0.0172621 12495453 3.86697 0.04182 0.11398 168.3357 0.04353 0.65048 0.69902 4.966481 15 14
Subbasin-25 0.4509512 76.17287 0.0223504 13045410 5.24715 0.02839 0.13271 152.3476 0.02903 0.54670 0.74785 6.459028 16 15
Subbasin-17 0.2841102 83.16054 0.0199571 12495453 10.03688 0.01690 0.06412 170.8054 0.01702 0.39144 0.95163 12.116451 17 15
Subbasin-22 0.1356595 87.00998 0.0170055 13285364 5.96290 0.00315 0.02824 22.9576 0.00385 0.52754 0.73365 7.765971 18 21
Subbasin-27 0.1760634 75.54790 0.0243670 13045410 5.91650 0.00647 0.04914 53.7912 0.00909 0.59947 1.06257 9.873535 19 16
Subbasin-14 0.1534925 86.45944 0.0203897 13510322 8.28297 0.00447 0.02245 38.0291 0.00459 0.42898 0.81870 9.908591 20 21
Subbasin-29 0.2114516 86.51667 0.0212226 13125281 5.88207 0.00541 0.03001 39.7751 0.00676 0.41407 1.30505 4.655897 21 19
Subbasin-12 0.2051869 77.89967 0.0254132 13125281 10.83541 0.00353 0.03326 51.2772 0.00473 0.44367 0.99767 18.137188 22 21
Subbasin-26 0.1337561 81.87401 0.0197080 12945267 7.81829 0.00303 0.03407 25.3484 0.00324 0.55457 0.97765 14.755358 23 11
Subbasin-13 0.1496254 81.80116 0.0171066 12435285 11.87524 0.00399 0.03623 48.1672 0.00406 0.37043 0.94896 15.190600 24 6
Subbasin-8 0.3410768 77.26844 0.0191042 12350375 8.06255 0.00367 0.05344 42.4820 0.00527 0.43617 0.77690 9.708267 25 6

Parameterization

  1. SCS curve number method for runoff generation
  2. Snyder unit hydrographs as the transfer function (global)
  3. Simple recession for baseflow (global)
  4. Simple lag for reaches (global)

Process soil characteristics

Using the “PERMEABILI” attribute of OGS (2010) soil characteristics needed to estimate infiltration loss parameters for the Upper Mad River Watershed were determined.

relative infiltration rates based on OGS, 2010



where I’m at…


Model calibration and verification

calibrate/verify the HEC-HMS hydrologic model using available streamflow gauge data (Task 1.3). A range of events will be used to simulate the complete flow regime.

Objective function

Minimize the peak-weighted root mean square error objective function (USACE, 1998)

\[ Z = \sqrt{\frac{1}{n}\sum^n\left[ \left(q_s-q_o\right)^2\cdot\left(\frac{q_o-\overline{q_o}}{\overline{q_o}}\right)\right]} \]

Event modelling

the SCS Curve Number method for the 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100-year design storms and the Timmins storm as per NVCA guidelines

SCS Curve Number method

todo

Timmins Storm

todo


References

Ontario Geological Survey 2010. Surficial geology of southern Ontario; Ontario Geological Survey, Miscellaneous Release— Data 128 – Revised.

Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, 2019a. Southern Ontario Land Resource Information System (SOLRIS) Version 3.0: Data Specifications. Science and Research Branch, April 2019

Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, 2019b. Ontario Digital Elevation Model (Imagery-Derived).

US Army Corps of Engineers, USACE (1998). HEC-1 flood hydrograph package user’s manual. Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, CA.