The Nottawasaga Valley Conservation Authority (NVCA) and The Oak Ridges Moraine Groundwater Program (ORMGP) have partnered to explore the applicability of the ORMGP’s historical climate data service in supporting event-based HEC-HMS models built in Southern Ontario to investigate the rainfall-runoff response to extreme summer rainfall events. As a proof of concept, the ~246km² Upper Mad River watershed was identified as a good first candidate.
Upper Mad River watershed
The HEC-HMS model code and its construction proceeded in a manor to accommodate future continuous simulation as planed by the NVCA. As such, the NVCA requested a “Deficit and Constant” method suitable for long term continuous modelling be included with the delivered model. The HEC-HMS model offered by the US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center includes such functionality as do many other model codes (PRMS, Raven, MikeSHE, HydroGeoSphere, etc.), yet it was ultimately chosen due to the code:
Snapshot of the Mad
River HEC-HMS project
The model construction phase proceeded with certain constraints such that the model can be readily simulate continuous processes. For instance, the model was built with:
It’s important to note that in practice, models are developed to be either event-based (e.g., individual extreme rainfall events) vs. continuous (e.g., long-term/seasonal hydrology, climate change, etc.) but rarely both. The ORMGP have maintains a near-real-time daily data set complete since 1901 built for long term continuous modelling needed for groundwater resource management. However, we also maintain a 6-hourly near-real-time climate data set since 2002. Both of these products are complete and are spatially distributed to thousands of ~10km² sub-watersheds covering our jurisdiction.
The following snapshot has been prepared to assist the NVCA with preparation of HEC-HMS Technical Memo (Task 1.4) describing the methods used to compile necessary data, build the model, calibrate/verify the model and conduct a sensitivity analysis.
The target for the Data Collection (Task 1.1) piece was the for the implementation of the ORMGP climate data service. As each of the HEC-HMS subbasin mapped well to the ORMGP’s sub-watershed delineation, rainfall data was nonetheless derived from the ~10km² CaPA-RDPA grid shown below. Compared with meteorological stations, the CaPA-RDPA product offers a refined spatial distribution of precipitation amounts. Given that most extreme summer events are of the convective type, many of these storms are themselves small scale and are susceptible of being unobserved by the relatively coarse station network.
HEC-HMS subasins vs CaPA-RDPA
resolution vs Nearest Active hourly climate stations
There exist 3 meteorological stations
Annual precipitation in the region have seen mixed trends as of late. for instance Collingwood shows a increasing trend over the past 30 years, whereas there’s a decreasing trend at Egbert CS and no trend at Barri-Oro.
mean daily
temperature: 8°C
Analyze meteorological data (precipitation, snow, temperature, radiation)
Instantaneous (5min) streamflow data have been acquired from 2011 for 02ED015: MAD RIVER BELOW AVENING (see daily data)
Analyze existing streamflow data (characterize large events (hydrograph analysis), baseflow analysis, statistical analysis)
Analyze applicable digital geospatial data sets including but not limited to soils, topography, land use to define hydrologic response units and appropriate catchments for the hydrologic model.
OMRF (2019b): 10m horizontal resolution.
Combination of SOLRIS v.3.0 for land use type (OMNR, 2019a) and OGS (2010) to classify the Curve Number (CN) method “hydrologic soil group”.
based on a geospatial overlay of
SOLRIS and OGS
based on SOLRIS
relative vegetaiton cover based
on SOLRIS
Upper Mad River Hydrologic Modeling Using HEC-HMS (Task 1.2)
Delineate climate zones and subbasins and will complete meteorological and streamflow data processing for the Upper Mad River watershed.
kable(df, caption = 'cell-border stripe')
| ï..name | percov | CN | perimp | metID | flowlen.km | fpslp | basinslp | bsnrelief | bsnrelrati | elongation | drndens | area | swsid | dssws |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subbasin-2 | 0.0927624 | 69.70073 | 0.0678313 | 12495453 | 6.95290 | 0.02519 | 0.04202 | 175.5799 | 0.02525 | 0.54685 | 1.02080 | 11.348858 | 0 | -1 |
| Subbasin-3 | 0.1272083 | 83.72658 | 0.0242185 | 12940644 | 9.76037 | 0.02263 | 0.07809 | 226.3828 | 0.02319 | 0.37984 | 0.99890 | 10.788892 | 1 | -1 |
| Subbasin-1 | 0.3479206 | 71.40088 | 0.0234130 | 12495453 | 4.01904 | 0.04948 | 0.11811 | 216.1292 | 0.05378 | 0.73244 | 0.72994 | 6.802537 | 2 | 3 |
| Subbasin-5 | 0.2616093 | 72.37493 | 0.0676880 | 12660504 | 7.30687 | 0.03337 | 0.08361 | 246.0634 | 0.03368 | 0.46110 | 1.24863 | 8.910771 | 3 | 1 |
| Subbasin-4 | 0.1278012 | 75.87059 | 0.0159263 | 12495453 | 5.85970 | 0.01837 | 0.07874 | 697.1606 | 0.11898 | 0.54728 | 0.50650 | 8.074160 | 4 | 10 |
| Subbasin-7 | 0.3371822 | 77.11174 | 0.0426831 | 12350375 | 15.14501 | 0.01627 | 0.10490 | 247.0075 | 0.01631 | 0.32158 | 0.93037 | 18.622390 | 5 | 10 |
| Subbasin-6 | 0.3461948 | 79.19955 | 0.0105703 | 12350375 | 6.65202 | 0.00519 | 0.07161 | 60.7784 | 0.00914 | 0.61148 | 0.79997 | 12.989416 | 6 | 5 |
| Subbasin-20 | 0.3411663 | 69.15127 | 0.0071032 | 13125281 | 8.71339 | 0.00132 | 0.01939 | 16.0768 | 0.00185 | 0.47365 | 0.88549 | 13.368437 | 7 | 23 |
| Subbasin-11 | 0.2909395 | 71.96663 | 0.0154423 | 12725234 | 11.09162 | 0.00134 | 0.02081 | 21.8456 | 0.00197 | 0.31928 | 1.09702 | 9.843678 | 8 | 23 |
| Subbasin-15 | 0.2955138 | 83.20826 | 0.0224271 | 12350375 | 5.84727 | 0.01637 | 0.06147 | 107.1488 | 0.01832 | 0.62234 | 0.76277 | 10.395453 | 9 | 13 |
| Subbasin-9 | 0.3349957 | 72.54164 | 0.0175558 | 12495453 | 3.88383 | 0.03198 | 0.13170 | 127.6565 | 0.03287 | 0.58502 | 0.81165 | 4.052843 | 10 | 2 |
| Subbasin-19 | 0.2876643 | 72.97874 | 0.0131664 | 12525261 | 6.85894 | 0.00338 | 0.03846 | 32.1715 | 0.00469 | 0.52718 | 0.94596 | 10.263243 | 11 | 24 |
| Subbasin-10 | 0.4950839 | 56.72039 | 0.0222907 | 12495453 | 6.00332 | 0.03303 | 0.13482 | 204.7157 | 0.03410 | 0.59790 | 0.88920 | 10.113434 | 12 | 2 |
| Subbasin-24 | 0.3042713 | 70.97325 | 0.0119758 | 12495453 | 8.43930 | 0.02363 | 0.11278 | 229.0075 | 0.02714 | 0.37488 | 0.92397 | 7.857712 | 13 | 10 |
| Subbasin-18 | 0.3269311 | 60.91327 | 0.0223886 | 12495453 | 6.94438 | 0.02300 | 0.11068 | 176.4274 | 0.02541 | 0.55750 | 1.15755 | 11.765281 | 14 | 12 |
| Subbasin-16 | 0.3836976 | 70.44204 | 0.0172621 | 12495453 | 3.86697 | 0.04182 | 0.11398 | 168.3357 | 0.04353 | 0.65048 | 0.69902 | 4.966481 | 15 | 14 |
| Subbasin-25 | 0.4509512 | 76.17287 | 0.0223504 | 13045410 | 5.24715 | 0.02839 | 0.13271 | 152.3476 | 0.02903 | 0.54670 | 0.74785 | 6.459028 | 16 | 15 |
| Subbasin-17 | 0.2841102 | 83.16054 | 0.0199571 | 12495453 | 10.03688 | 0.01690 | 0.06412 | 170.8054 | 0.01702 | 0.39144 | 0.95163 | 12.116451 | 17 | 15 |
| Subbasin-22 | 0.1356595 | 87.00998 | 0.0170055 | 13285364 | 5.96290 | 0.00315 | 0.02824 | 22.9576 | 0.00385 | 0.52754 | 0.73365 | 7.765971 | 18 | 21 |
| Subbasin-27 | 0.1760634 | 75.54790 | 0.0243670 | 13045410 | 5.91650 | 0.00647 | 0.04914 | 53.7912 | 0.00909 | 0.59947 | 1.06257 | 9.873535 | 19 | 16 |
| Subbasin-14 | 0.1534925 | 86.45944 | 0.0203897 | 13510322 | 8.28297 | 0.00447 | 0.02245 | 38.0291 | 0.00459 | 0.42898 | 0.81870 | 9.908591 | 20 | 21 |
| Subbasin-29 | 0.2114516 | 86.51667 | 0.0212226 | 13125281 | 5.88207 | 0.00541 | 0.03001 | 39.7751 | 0.00676 | 0.41407 | 1.30505 | 4.655897 | 21 | 19 |
| Subbasin-12 | 0.2051869 | 77.89967 | 0.0254132 | 13125281 | 10.83541 | 0.00353 | 0.03326 | 51.2772 | 0.00473 | 0.44367 | 0.99767 | 18.137188 | 22 | 21 |
| Subbasin-26 | 0.1337561 | 81.87401 | 0.0197080 | 12945267 | 7.81829 | 0.00303 | 0.03407 | 25.3484 | 0.00324 | 0.55457 | 0.97765 | 14.755358 | 23 | 11 |
| Subbasin-13 | 0.1496254 | 81.80116 | 0.0171066 | 12435285 | 11.87524 | 0.00399 | 0.03623 | 48.1672 | 0.00406 | 0.37043 | 0.94896 | 15.190600 | 24 | 6 |
| Subbasin-8 | 0.3410768 | 77.26844 | 0.0191042 | 12350375 | 8.06255 | 0.00367 | 0.05344 | 42.4820 | 0.00527 | 0.43617 | 0.77690 | 9.708267 | 25 | 6 |
Using the “PERMEABILI” attribute of OGS (2010) soil characteristics needed to estimate infiltration loss parameters for the Upper Mad River Watershed were determined.
relative infiltration rates based
on OGS, 2010
calibrate/verify the HEC-HMS hydrologic model using available streamflow gauge data (Task 1.3). A range of events will be used to simulate the complete flow regime.
Minimize the peak-weighted root mean square error objective function (USACE, 1998)
\[ Z = \sqrt{\frac{1}{n}\sum^n\left[ \left(q_s-q_o\right)^2\cdot\left(\frac{q_o-\overline{q_o}}{\overline{q_o}}\right)\right]} \]
the SCS Curve Number method for the 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100-year design storms and the Timmins storm as per NVCA guidelines
todo
todo
Ontario Geological Survey 2010. Surficial geology of southern Ontario; Ontario Geological Survey, Miscellaneous Release— Data 128 – Revised.
Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, 2019a. Southern Ontario Land Resource Information System (SOLRIS) Version 3.0: Data Specifications. Science and Research Branch, April 2019
Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, 2019b. Ontario Digital Elevation Model (Imagery-Derived).
US Army Corps of Engineers, USACE (1998). HEC-1 flood hydrograph package user’s manual. Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, CA.